Market Is Stabilizing

Industry encouraged that the number of homes on the market is starting to decline.

RISMEDIA, October 27, 2006—Existing-home sales eased last month, as did the number of homes available for sale – indicating the housing market is stabilizing, according to the National Association of Realtors. Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2% below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said stabilizing sales should build confidence in the housing market. “Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction – this is likely the trough for sales,” said Lereah. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market, and sales will be at more normal levels in the wake of the unsustainable boom that we saw last year.” He noted sales already are improving in some areas. Total housing inventory levels fell 2.4% at the end of September to 3.75 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace. NAR president Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Virginia, said the industry is encouraged that the number of homes on the market is starting to decline. “It appears we have passed a cyclical peak in terms of the number of homes on the market,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.” With the market in transition, the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $220,000 in September, which is 2.2% below September 2005 when the median was $225,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.40% in September, down from 6.52% in August; the rate was 5.77% in September 2005. Single-family home sales slipped 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in September from a pace of 5.51 million August, and were 13.8% below the 6.29 million-unit level in September 2005, which was the second highest month on record. The median existing single-family home price was $219,800 in September, down 2.5% from a year earlier. Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales fell 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 units in September from 788,000 in August, and were 16.0% less than the 908,000-unit pace in September 2005. The median existing condo price3 was $219,800 in September, which is 2.8% lower than a year ago. Regionally, existing-home sales in the South rose 0.4% to an annual sales rate of 2.52 million in September, but were 9.0% below September 2005. The median price in the South was $184,000, down 1.6% from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest eased 2.8% in September to a level of 1.39 million, and were 13.7% lower than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $169,000, which is 2.3% below September 2005. In the West, existing-home sales declined 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.25 million in September, and were 23.8% lower than a year earlier. The median price in the West was $332,000, down 4.3% from September 2005. Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.7%to a level of 1.03 million in September, and were 13.4% below September 2005. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $259,000, down 5.1% from a year earlier.

2007 California Housing Market Forcast

Median home price in California will decline 2% to $550,000, experts say

RISMEDIA, October 19, 2006—The rate of home price appreciation will post a modest decline next year following several years of steep increases, while the sales pace will decrease as the market stabilizes throughout 2007, according to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) "2007 California Housing Market Forecast.”
The forecast was presented during the California Realtor Expo 2006 through today at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach, California. The trade show attracts more than 12,000 attendees and is one of the largest state real estate trade shows in the nation.
The median home price in California will decline 2% to $550,000 in 2007 compared with a projected median of $561,000 this year, while sales for 2007 are projected to decrease 7% to 447,500 units, compared with 481,200 units (projected) in 2006. “The housing market clearly downshifted in 2006 from the record-setting sales and robust price gains of the last few years,” said C.A.R. president Vince Malta. “The residential real estate market in 2006 was characterized by a gap between buyer and seller expectations. Sellers sensed that the peak of the market was approaching, yet still hoped to obtain the highest possible prices. Buyers’ sense of urgency waned as the number of homes on the market grew and they took longer to identify and subsequently purchase a home.” “Although the 2007 sales decline is not expected to be as steep as what we experienced this year, the psychology of the market – matching the differing expectations of sellers and buyers – will continue to be a factor as Realtors help consumers navigate their way through a changing market,” said Malta. “While we’re projecting a modest decline in the median price of a home, over the long term, residential real estate in California has been and will continue to be a solid investment,” said Malta. “Since 1968, the long-term average price appreciation is 9.1 percent.” “While we recognized that the frenetic sales pace of the past four years could not continue indefinitely, the housing market in 2006 did not fare as well as we initially expected,” said C.A.R. vice president and chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The anticipated slowdown that began in October 2005 was heightened by dual natural disasters in the Gulf Coast, a significant drop in consumer confidence, rising energy and raw materials costs, and a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that began in June 2004. Fixed-rate mortgages also hit and passed the psychological threshold of 6 percent, while adjustable rate mortgages passed 5 percent, ultimately causing a decline in affordability. Affordability concerns also will continue to constrain sales for many households in California throughout 2007, especially for first-time home buyers. “Looking to 2007, we expect that some regions of the state, including the Central Valley, San Diego and Riverside/San Bernardino regions, will experience sales declines greater than the state as a whole,” said Appleton-Young. “That also holds true for several second-home markets, including the desert areas of Southern California and the Wine Country.”