Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 -

Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said there are mixed conditions around the United States. “Roughly three-quarters of the country will experience a sluggish expansion in 2007, while other areas should continue to contract for at least part of the year,” he said. “Most of the correction in home prices is behind us, but general gains in value next year will be modest by historical standards.”
“Buyers, especially first-time buyers, with the combined benefits of seller flexibility and an unexpected drop in mortgage interest rates, have a window of opportunity. These conditions will persist in many areas until early spring when inventory supplies are likely to become more balanced,” Lereah said.
Existing-home sales, finishing the third-best year on record, are projected for 2006 at 6.47 million, a decline of 8.6 percent. In 2007, they’re expected to rise steadily from the current cyclical low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million, which would be 1.0 percent lower than this year’s total.
“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.
New-home sales in 2006 are expected to fall 17.7 percent to 1.06 million, the fourth highest total on record, before sliding an additional 9.4 percent in 2007 to 957,000. Much of the contraction in the new housing market results from cuts in builder construction to support pricing for current inventories. In addition, high construction costs in many areas are minimizing potential profits.
Total housing starts for 2006 are likely to drop 12.3 percent to 1.82 million units, with another 15.1 percent decline in 2007 to 1.54 million.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to gradually increase to 6.7 percent by the fourth quarter of 2007. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.11 percent.
The national median existing-home price for all of 2006 is projected to rise 1.4 percent to $222,600, with another 1.0 percent gain next year to $224,700. The median new-home price should ease by 0.5 percent to $239,700 this year, then rise by 0.8 percent in 2007 to $241,700.
“Keep in mind that overall home prices were still appreciating at double digit rates in the first quarter of this year – prices in this buyer’s market are temporarily a little below a year ago when we were in a strong seller’s market,” Lereah said. “This correction is one of the factors drawing buyers into the current market, but most sellers are still seeing very healthy long-term gains.”
The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Rates Fall For Fifth Consecutive Week

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.14 percent with an average 0.4 point for the week ending November 30, 2006, down from last week when it averaged 6.18 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.26 percent. This is the lowest the 30-year FRM has been since the week ending January 26, 2006, when it averaged 6.12 percent.
The 15-year FRM this week averaged 5.87 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.91 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.81 percent. This is the lowest the 15-year FRM has been since the week ending February 2, 2006 when it averaged 5.81 percent
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.95 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.99 percent. A year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 5.76 percent. This is the lowest the 5-year ARM has been since the week ending March 16, 2006, when it averaged 5.93 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.46 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.49 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 5.16 percent.
“Mortgage rates drifted lower this week, bringing long-term rates to levels below those of this time last year,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Mortgage applications for home purchase in November have remained healthy, due largely because of the drop in mortgage rates and a softening in home prices in some areas.”
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A Home For The Holidays

For those of you who are getting ready for the holiday season I thought I would share some information with you. This time of the year things slow down in the real estate business due to the season. Who wants to buy a home now? Well actually if you have been thinking about buying a home add it to your Christmas list. Did you know that interest rates have dropped to lowest level since January 25. So you ask yourself ok Bridget but the last thing I have time for during the holidays is purchasing a home!
Well let's look at something people who have there homes on the market during this time really need to sell there home and very motivated to do so. So with the rates being so low, sellers motivation, and not a lot of buyers to compete with my question is what are you waiting for?
Come January things will pick up and so will the buyers. So add that home to your Christmas wish list and contact me to help you achieve your dream of home ownership!

Market Is Stabilizing

Industry encouraged that the number of homes on the market is starting to decline.

RISMEDIA, October 27, 2006—Existing-home sales eased last month, as did the number of homes available for sale – indicating the housing market is stabilizing, according to the National Association of Realtors. Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dipped 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.18 million units in September from a level of 6.30 million in August, and were 14.2% below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the third strongest month on record. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said stabilizing sales should build confidence in the housing market. “Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction – this is likely the trough for sales,” said Lereah. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market, and sales will be at more normal levels in the wake of the unsustainable boom that we saw last year.” He noted sales already are improving in some areas. Total housing inventory levels fell 2.4% at the end of September to 3.75 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace. NAR president Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Virginia, said the industry is encouraged that the number of homes on the market is starting to decline. “It appears we have passed a cyclical peak in terms of the number of homes on the market,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months. Taking the long view is always the best way to approach housing decisions, and right now, buyers are in a very favorable market.” With the market in transition, the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $220,000 in September, which is 2.2% below September 2005 when the median was $225,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.40% in September, down from 6.52% in August; the rate was 5.77% in September 2005. Single-family home sales slipped 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in September from a pace of 5.51 million August, and were 13.8% below the 6.29 million-unit level in September 2005, which was the second highest month on record. The median existing single-family home price was $219,800 in September, down 2.5% from a year earlier. Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales fell 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 units in September from 788,000 in August, and were 16.0% less than the 908,000-unit pace in September 2005. The median existing condo price3 was $219,800 in September, which is 2.8% lower than a year ago. Regionally, existing-home sales in the South rose 0.4% to an annual sales rate of 2.52 million in September, but were 9.0% below September 2005. The median price in the South was $184,000, down 1.6% from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest eased 2.8% in September to a level of 1.39 million, and were 13.7% lower than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $169,000, which is 2.3% below September 2005. In the West, existing-home sales declined 3.1% to an annual pace of 1.25 million in September, and were 23.8% lower than a year earlier. The median price in the West was $332,000, down 4.3% from September 2005. Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.7%to a level of 1.03 million in September, and were 13.4% below September 2005. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $259,000, down 5.1% from a year earlier.

2007 California Housing Market Forcast

Median home price in California will decline 2% to $550,000, experts say

RISMEDIA, October 19, 2006—The rate of home price appreciation will post a modest decline next year following several years of steep increases, while the sales pace will decrease as the market stabilizes throughout 2007, according to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) "2007 California Housing Market Forecast.”
The forecast was presented during the California Realtor Expo 2006 through today at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach, California. The trade show attracts more than 12,000 attendees and is one of the largest state real estate trade shows in the nation.
The median home price in California will decline 2% to $550,000 in 2007 compared with a projected median of $561,000 this year, while sales for 2007 are projected to decrease 7% to 447,500 units, compared with 481,200 units (projected) in 2006. “The housing market clearly downshifted in 2006 from the record-setting sales and robust price gains of the last few years,” said C.A.R. president Vince Malta. “The residential real estate market in 2006 was characterized by a gap between buyer and seller expectations. Sellers sensed that the peak of the market was approaching, yet still hoped to obtain the highest possible prices. Buyers’ sense of urgency waned as the number of homes on the market grew and they took longer to identify and subsequently purchase a home.” “Although the 2007 sales decline is not expected to be as steep as what we experienced this year, the psychology of the market – matching the differing expectations of sellers and buyers – will continue to be a factor as Realtors help consumers navigate their way through a changing market,” said Malta. “While we’re projecting a modest decline in the median price of a home, over the long term, residential real estate in California has been and will continue to be a solid investment,” said Malta. “Since 1968, the long-term average price appreciation is 9.1 percent.” “While we recognized that the frenetic sales pace of the past four years could not continue indefinitely, the housing market in 2006 did not fare as well as we initially expected,” said C.A.R. vice president and chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The anticipated slowdown that began in October 2005 was heightened by dual natural disasters in the Gulf Coast, a significant drop in consumer confidence, rising energy and raw materials costs, and a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that began in June 2004. Fixed-rate mortgages also hit and passed the psychological threshold of 6 percent, while adjustable rate mortgages passed 5 percent, ultimately causing a decline in affordability. Affordability concerns also will continue to constrain sales for many households in California throughout 2007, especially for first-time home buyers. “Looking to 2007, we expect that some regions of the state, including the Central Valley, San Diego and Riverside/San Bernardino regions, will experience sales declines greater than the state as a whole,” said Appleton-Young. “That also holds true for several second-home markets, including the desert areas of Southern California and the Wine Country.”

Don't Let Them Scare You

The newspaper probably hasn't told you this but have you seen the interest rates? They are back down to low 6 and high 5 percent range depending on your credit. There is currently a good selection of homes on the market for you to preview and is finally giving the buyers a chance to be selective and find the right home.
The president of the National Association of Realtors feels the media is feeding the buyers fears of purchasing homes. He mentioned the last time we experienced a market similar to this the job market was doing poorly as well as economy. Our current unemployment rate is very low and the economy is doing better. I also have noticed the gas prices coming down.
Another note able comment is many Realtors are saying they are glad were back to a "normal market" Which we are in, the thing that is different is we are adjusting back to that market after 5 years of never seen price increases which makes everyone think we are in a sinking market. For example the homes have come down slightly in price, but when compared to last year at this time home prices still increased but not in the double digits. I have a report I offer on my website that is updated monthly from the North County Association of Realtors about our local market. You will find the link by clicking here Click Here
Please feel free to call Jeff Justice to discuss what the rates are and what would be the best loan for you Jeff can be reached at 760 458-4673 for a no obligation consultation.
If I can assist in anyway please don't hesitate to call on me.

No Need To Start Panic

No need to start a panic By: North County Times Opinion Staff

Our view: Slower growth in home prices lets rest of economy catch upWith the news that the median price for a home in North County is down and speculation that our long-running housing boom might be about to go bust, it's easy to be an alarmist.
The sound of the 1.4 percent drop reported this week, though, is not necessarily that of a bubble popping. It's more likely the hissing of a red-hot real estate market cooling. This is a chance for many in our area to breathe easier while the rest of the local economy catches up.
According to the North San Diego County Association of Realtors, the median price for a home in North County was $628,750 in August, down from the price in August 2005 of $637,000. While local housing prices tend to fluctuate, moving slightly up or down from month to month, this drop marks the first time in a decade that the median dropped from the previous year.It's to be expected. Area home prices hit an all-time high in June after skyrocketing during the first half of this decade; North County's median home price more than tripled from 2000 to 2006. Such growth far outpaces the rest of the local economy and can in no way be sustained, especially when many of our residents are priced out of the market.The disparity between our healthy overall economy and a real estate market on steroids helps explain why the number of homes sold in August was down 25 percent from the previous August. Houses are staying on the market longer as potential buyers become more picky, holding out for a home they can afford. Or many residents are opting not to buy ---- the costs of renting a home have kept pace with the economy.Some economists are making doomsday predictions, suggesting home prices could fall 40 percent by 2010 and cause a major recession. Most, though, say we can expect median home values to continue to climb, just at a slower pace, keeping up with economic growth.This forecast for slower growth, rather than retreat, makes sense in light of other economic factors. The area's retail sector is up 8 percent, unemployment is near historical lows, salaries are growing and interest rates are still relatively low. There's enough movement in the local economy to avoid a painful housing crash, but not enough to sustain outlandish growth in the cost of housing ---- which jumped 23 percent from 2004 to 2005.Many predicted the day would come when the housing market would finally took a breather. We may be there. Or we may not be. Last year, home prices hit a high of $644,849 and then dipped to $610,000 before taking off again in 2006. The same kind of dip and turn-around occurred from mid-2004 until 2005.And home prices are still high ---- the August drop only takes us back to January levels, when the median was $620,000.The drop is a benchmark, for sure, but we aren't panicking. We suspect it's more symbolic than anything else. Slow and steady growth, as opposed to wild fluctuation, makes for more solid investment, and allows North County's economy to catch up with home prices. It may even someday allow more of us to buy a house in our hometown and realize a significant part of the American dream.